AGI Research Overview

Tracking progress toward Artificial General Intelligence

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) represents AI systems capable of matching or exceeding human-level cognitive abilities across virtually all domains. Here we track the leading organizations, their approaches, and timeline predictions from industry experts.

8
Major Companies
2027-35
Predicted Timeline
5+
Technical Approaches
$100B+
Industry Investment
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Leading AGI Research Organizations

OpenAI

San Francisco, California

Safety: C+ (FLI Winter 2025)
Founded

2015

Key Programs
Five-Level Frameworko3 ModelGPT-5 Family
AGI Timeline

~2035 ("few thousand days")

Gradual transition to AGI with incremental deployment

Anthropic

San Francisco, California

Safety: C+ (FLI Winter 2025)
Founded

2021

Key Programs
Interpretability ResearchConstitutional AIResponsible Scaling Policy
AGI Timeline

2027

Safety-first development with Constitutional AI

Google DeepMind

London, United Kingdom

Safety: C (FLI Winter 2025)
Founded

2010

Key Programs
Gemini EvolutionDeep ThinkProject Astra
AGI Timeline

50% by 2030

Universal AI assistant through world models

Meta AI

Menlo Park, California

Safety: D- (FLI Winter 2025)
Founded

2013

Key Programs
Llama Model SeriesAMI LabsSpace Llama
AGI Timeline

Long-term (world models needed)

Open-source leadership to make Llama industry standard

Microsoft Research

Redmond, Washington

Safety: N/A
Founded

1991

Key Programs
Foundation of AGI ProjectHumanist Superintelligence TeamSparks of AGI Research
AGI Timeline

2026-2028 (MIT report)

Humanist superintelligence that serves humanity

xAI

San Francisco, California

Safety: D (FLI Winter 2025)
Founded

2023

Key Programs
Grok Evolution (3, 4, 4.1)Colossus Infrastructure
AGI Timeline

2026

Massive compute infrastructure with Colossus

Cohere

Toronto, Canada

Safety: N/A
Founded

2019

Key Programs
Command ModelsNorth Platform
AGI Timeline

Not pursuing AGI

Enterprise-first, not chasing AGI

Inflection AI

Palo Alto, California

Safety: N/A
Founded

2022

Key Programs
Pi ChatbotEnterprise API licensing
AGI Timeline

Pivoted to enterprise

Enterprise API-first after Microsoft acquisition

Expert Timeline Predictions

AGI Timeline Predictions by Expert

2026-2027
2028-2030
2031-2035
2036+
ExpertAffiliationDatePrediction
Elon MuskxAI, TeslaDec 20252026
Shane LeggDeepMindJan 202650% by 2028
Dario AmodeiAnthropicJan 20262027
Masayoshi SonSoftBankFeb 20252027-2028
Jensen HuangNVIDIAMar 20242029
Demis HassabisDeepMindJan 202650% by 2030
Eric SchmidtFormer Google CEOApr 20252028-2030
Ray KurzweilFuturist20242032
Sam AltmanOpenAI2024~2035
Geoffrey HintonPioneer20232028-2043

Technical Approaches to AGI

Large Language Models

Transformer-based models trained on vast text corpora

Dominant paradigm
Companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta

Neuromorphic Computing

Brain-inspired computing for energy efficiency

Emerging
Companies: Intel (Loihi), IBM (TrueNorth)

World Models

Internal representations for simulating physical world

Active research
Companies: DeepMind (Genie), Meta (V-JEPA), NVIDIA (Cosmos)

Neuro-Symbolic AI

Hybrid neural networks with symbolic reasoning

Theoretical promise
Companies: DeepMind (AlphaGeometry)

Agentic AI

Autonomous action, planning, and task execution

Rapid development
Companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google

Important Note

Timeline predictions for AGI vary significantly among experts and are subject to considerable uncertainty. These predictions should be viewed as informed opinions rather than definitive forecasts. The path to AGI involves numerous technical, ethical, and safety challenges that remain unresolved.

Learn about AI Safety & Ethics